Research 2.0

Wednesday, June 14, 2006 that really it?

We only did the walk through on ZDNet but it was a big disappointment. It's true the new 3D looking icons are cool but that can't be it right?!

There is better integration for pictures, audio and video but it doesn't even catch up to what you have on OS X today so it's just more me too stuff.

Improved integrated security is probably the only thing that we nodded at; thinking that customers will very likely want these features and security is often enough of a reason to upgrade to a new software release, at least in the corporate world.

On the whole disappointed but not surprised. Corporates hooked on Windows will upgrade and the rest of the world will probably yawn.

We will take the Beta later and play some more but the walk through was all that could be managed today.

Sunday, June 04, 2006

Bank of France warns on risk....

The FT carried the story on May 31, 2006 that the "Bank of France warned that the tools used to measure risk had been made obsolete by the rapid growth of complex financial products, such as credit derivatives and structured investements in hedge funds."

The article goes on to emphasize what the BoF was most concerned about the "value at risk" computation which could be much lower than the actual risk if market volatility and/or interest rates increase.

Interesting the "value at risk" measure which is the item most investors focus on assumes that positions can be liquidated in 10 days. Beyond being just arbitrary this assumption seems quite inconsistent with what can reasonably be expected in the market today, let alone a panicked market where liquidity is severely tested by hurding market participants!

In a related article JPMorgan noted that the amount of funds invested in the collateralised debt obligation (CDO) market is now about $1 trillion and may reach or even exceed the $1.2 trillion estimated for the hedge fund industry.

Another chapter in our continuing exploration of systemic risk in the global financial system.